Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

The Wheat Market Outlook is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.


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World Wheat Overview:


2017/’18 World Wheat Overview:   USDA Export Sales, March 14th, 2018.

  • Slow US export sales: The USDA export sales report again confirmed the poor performance of US wheat on the world market. Just 163k mt of US wheat was sold last week, significantly below the 250-500k mt expectation. This is only 80% of the roughly 204k mt weekly sales needed to reach the USDA’s revised export projection.
  • Brussels updated export projections on EU all wheat shipments now stands at 20.3mln mt. This is significantly down from the Commission’s 25.4mln mt and the USDA’s 25.0mln mt.
  • Russian wheat exports have been the big volume winner this year at the cost of US and EU exports.


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Wheat Market Outlook

Significant events:

  • Rain in the Plains: Last Friday’s 5-day forecast was calling for rain at the beginning of this week. Rains are supposed to cover the Northern and Eastern Kansas regions as well as the Eastern regions of Oklahoma and Texas.
  • The EU announced last Friday that it would put a 25% tariff on US corn if the US hikes tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.
  • Slowdown of Wheat Buying: It seems that global trade is starting to ask if both the crop and domestic demand are supporting the high prices currently being asked. This is evident as Algeria only purchased half the wheat they normally do in this week’s tender, and Korea passed on their tender altogether.

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Primary Elevator Bids

Click on the image for a version that can be enlargedprices-march-19



Primary elevator bids data source: PDQ

Grade Spreads in Canadian Dollarsspreads-march-19



Relevant FOB Prices and Calculated Basisfob-and-basis-march-19



CLICK HERE to learn what the basis is and why it is important.


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For the archived wheat market outlook and price reports, please CLICK HERE.