Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

The Wheat Market Outlook is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

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World Wheat Overview:

  • October 12th USDA WASDE Report:
    • World wheat production for 2017/18 has again been increased, now by 6.34 million mt from last month’s report due to production increase in Russia, the EU, and India.
    • Canadian Wheat Production is now projected to be 27 million mt, up from last month’s estimate of 26.5 million mt.
    • Australian Wheat Production has been reduced by just 1 million mt, to 21.5 million mt which is a smaller than expected reduction.

usda-snapshot-oct-2017

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Wheat Market Outlook

Significant events:

  • The latest USDA supply and demand report was bearish for wheat showing both U.S. and world ending stock projections larger than anticipated.  The world wheat number was particularly bearish, adding 5 mln mt to projected ending stocks this year.
  • In the past week reports indicate that Indian wheat production is higher than earlier thought, with 2017/2018 Indian wheat production now projected at a record 98.38 million mt, up from 96 million mt in the September report. Due to higher production, estimates for Indian wheat imports have been lowered by 0.5 million mt, to 3.5 million mt. India is the world’s 3rd largest wheat producer, and was responsible for 12% of 2016/2017 global wheat production.
  • Argentina announced this past week that they will export wheat to Mexico for the first time, with 27k mt of sales scheduled for December delivery. Prior to this, Argentina has only exported wheat to Brazil, and Mexico’s recent wheat purchase might be taken as indicative of Mexico’s weakening trade relations with the US.

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Primary Elevator Bids

Click on the image for a version that can be enlargedprices-oct-16-2017

Primary elevator bids data source: PDQ

Grade Spreads in Canadian Dollars

spreads-oct-16-2017Click on the image for a version that can be enlarged

 

 

Relevant FOB Prices and Calculated Basis

fob-and-basis-oct-16-2017Click on the image for a version that can be enlarged

 

CLICK HERE to learn what the basis is and why it is important.

 

adobe-acrobat-pdf-file-512 CLICK HERE for the full report in PDF.

For the archived wheat market outlook and price reports, please CLICK HERE.