Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

The Wheat Market Outlook is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

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World Wheat Overview:

  • June 13th USDA Wheat Outlook:
    • Winter wheat yield projections for the global 2017/18 crop are up slightly in the June 13th USDA wheat outlook report. New projections are boosting 2017/2018 estimates on projections for higher global production. Russia, Argentina, and Turkey have all increased production prospects.
    • In the US, increased carry-in from the 2016/2017 crop year combined with expanded projected imports have resulted in the ending stock estimates for the 2017/2018 crop year being revised higher by 10.8 million bushels to 924.3 million bushels.
    • The US wheat stocks to use ratio for the projected crop year remains lower vs the 2016/2017 crop year and close to the 5 year average of 0.39 (see graph below).

us-ending-stocks-june-19

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Wheat Market Outlook

Significant events this past week:

  • Significant events:
    • Weather continues to be a concern. Now dry conditions in Western Europe with some extreme heat and no rains are expected for the coming week. The long term forecast still has hot dry conditions in the Black Sea in July-August and prolonged dryness in Australia is causing increasing worry. The HRS S&D is becoming untenably tight and US HRW is struggling to find protein.

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Primary Elevator Bids

Click on the image for a version that can be enlargedprices-june-19

Primary elevator bids data source: PDQ

 

Grade Spreads in Canadian Dollars

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spreads

 

 

Relevant FOB Prices and Calculated Basis

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fob-and-basis-june-19

CLICK HERE to learn what the basis is and why it is important.

 

adobe-acrobat-pdf-file-512 CLICK HERE for the full report in PDF.

For the archived wheat market outlook and price reports, please CLICK HERE.