Wheat Market Outlook and Prices

The Wheat Market Outlook is provided by Mercantile Consulting Venture Inc.

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World Wheat Overview:

World Wheat Production Shares by Country (USDA-FAS)

 

  • Twelve countries produce almost 90 percent of the world’s wheat.
  • The wheat production make-up by country was stable for many years, but a shift has developed since 2000 in favor of the KRU region (Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine), mainly at the expense of the United States, and has been expanding.
  • The result has been a drop in the US (and North American) share of world wheat exports.
  • For 2018/19, the projected decline in wheat production is mainly driven by Russia and India, though partly offsetting the drop in these two countries is higher wheat output forecast for the United States, Australia, Canada, Argentina, the North African region, and some countries of the Middle East. Most of the changes are due to projected returns to trend yields after the extremes of 2017/18.

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Wheat Market Outlook

Significant events:

  • US weekly export inspections were 341k mt for a season total 847 mln bu, down 13% on last year (USDA down 14%).
  • The weekly US crop update showed winter wheat ratings unchanged at 36% GD/EX (52% last year), with 61% heading (71% last year; 74% average).
  • Spring wheat seeding in the US has caught up.
  • Undesirable dryness persists in Australia.
  • The weather remains favorable for planting, and due to good current prices for wheat many expect an acreage expansion in the Argentina.
  • European weather maps eliminated much of the rainfall out of the forecast for the east and Black Sea for the next 2 weeks. Temperatures are only slightly above average, but the soil moisture maps start to give cause for concern.
  • There seemed to be general agreement that the USDA number for the Russian wheat crop number of 72 mln mt was too low given normal weather. However, rainfall has been well below normal so far this season and the coming weeks will be critical for yields.
  • Russian wheat remains the world’s cheapest wheat.

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Primary Elevator Bids

Click on the image for a version that can be enlargedprices-may-22

 

 

Primary elevator bids data source: PDQ

Grade Spreads in Canadian Dollarsspreads-may-22

 

 

Relevant FOB Prices and Calculated Basisfob-and-basis-may-22

 

 

CLICK HERE to learn what the basis is and why it is important.

 

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For the archived wheat market outlook and price reports, please CLICK HERE.